In this dance of democracy, scarce resources are seemingly rambling up the
election tempo. Religious slant on employment and sillier issues such as mangalsutra
are raised for diverting from the core issue that has as yet to be answered by
the pre-poll slogan of “We are the fifth largest economy”.
Are we not that large? Some statistics say we are, but the country has
tougher statistics to counter, such as the difficult balance of payments and
still more grim Manipur, the embattled state, for the sheer failure of the
provincial government has displaced over 67000 people during the last one year
because of the ethnic conflict. There are also reports that farmers plough into
Punjab BJP’s poll campaign and express similar wrath in Haryana as well. They tell
a political party to be people friendly as kisans too are not born for doles. Plus,
it’s a national shame that Agniveers on their death are not even given a salute.
Jobs not being there is the reality. Urban joblessness has risen to 6.7 per
cent from 6.5 per cent in March 2024. Male unemployment has jumped to 6.3 per cent
from 5.8 per cent. Periodic labour survey data is a clear pointer to a tough
employment scenario. This is reflected in the elections by the Bihar caste
survey which indicates more difficult situations for marginal castes, a
detested reality. Caste denotes empowerment as well as deprivation.
Would a Congress manifesto professing over 50 per cent reservation serve
the issue? The BJP contests it. It is accused of wanting to rob reservations. This
is repeatedly denied by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat.
No political party has answers if jobs are not there, then how would a
reservation help! The National Commission for Backward Classes has warned both West
Bengal and Punjab governments for not “fully using the space available under
the 50 per cent ceiling for reservations for scheduled castes, tribes and
backward classes and OBCs”. It has asked
West Bengal to increase it by 5 per cent and Punjab 13 per cent as it finds that
the former filled up 45 per cent of the quota and the latter only 37 per cent. Worst
may be Arunachal Pradesh. Yet another sex racket is busted with eight
government officials among 21 arrested.
The International Labour Organisation (ILO) finds 28 million men, women and
children are in forced labour due to cycle of poverty. Of these 63 per cent are
in the private sector. Forced labour generates $236 billion in illegal profits
globally every year. “We now
know that the situation has only got worse. The international community must
urgently come together to take action to end this injustice,” says ILO Director
General.
The report, titled ‘Profits and poverty: The economics of forced labour’, also
estimates that traffickers and criminals are generating close to $10,000 per
victim, up from $8,269 (adjusted for inflation) a decade ago. The survey also
said that forced commercial sexual exploitation contributes for more than
two-thirds (73 per cent) of overall illicit profits, despite accounting for
only 27 per cent of all victims in privately imposed work. “Total annual illegal profits from forced labour are
highest in Europe and Central Asia ($84 billion), followed by Asia, including
India, and the Pacific ($62 billion), the Americas ($52 billion), Africa ($20
billion), and the Arab States ($18 billion),” the report said.
The ILO cautions India. It has also worked on the conditions of Indian
labour in the Arab countries. In a scenario, where people compromise with their
dignity, the ILO doubts the figures on India’s galloping progress. The supposed
$3 trillion economy, highly burdened with debt, has an annual repayment itself
at over Rs 10.4 lakh crore.
Economic issues remain at the forefront of the voters. Globally shrinking
jobs, particularly in the IT sector, have rattled many Indians. Political
parties offering sops of reservations or apprenticeship of Rs 1 lakh a year
(approx. Rs 8000 plus a month) sells well among the burgeoning numbers of
jobless, who are already hit by one of the highest inflations of 55 per cent in
ten years. It is not easy for them to
manage it amid farmers’ distress and trade deficit widening to a four-month
high at $ 19.1 billion. Exports rise by one per cent to $35 billion and imports
to over 10 per cent to $ 54.1 billion. This upsets the government calculations
on the impending forex reserves.
How can the country therefore improve the job scenario? The age-old move to
wean the workers away from the farms has failed. Still agriculture employs over
54 per cent of the Indian workers. The Nehruvian economy created robust public
sector organisation. In 1994-2000, PSUs employed 19.4 million (about 2 crore)
people or 69 per cent of the total employed. The other 31 per cent were
employed in central and state governments. Some 3.4 million jobs were added to
non-farm pay rolls and unemployment at 5.6 per cent had fallen from 6.6 per cent.
In sharp contrast, in 2021-22, PSU employment reduced to 8.61 lakh. And it is
gradually reducing. According to official statistics, employment in the
organized sector is now a mere 8.34 per cent, of which public sector accounts
for 5.77 per cent and private sector only 2.58 per cent in the total employment
generated.
The governments massive infra investment of Rs 11 lakh crore this fiscal
may have added some jobs in the construction sector, but these short-term jobs
are not considered quality work. This apart, infra investments are subject to
erosion in many ways, right from excess cost estimation to longer gestation. So,
the promise of reservation is day dreaming. According to CMIE, employment in
India increased by a mere 5.8 million till March 2023. An additional 119
million people were not added to the potential labour force during the same.
The estimates show that self-employment has been the chief driver of the Indian
job market, which was hit hard by demonetisation, crushing a parallel
self-sustained economy.
Election promises apart, the country is in the grip of severe economic
crisis. Ideally, more PSUs are required to stop labour exploitation in the
private sector as well as their disinclination to create jobs. The Mahanavratna
and Navratna industries were doing well when most of these were axed or
sabotaged like the Air India and HMT to facilitate the growth of the private
sector, which earned huge profits but did not create jobs.
Reversing it would require revival and reforming
the Planning Commission and reshaping the economy in the public sector where
the private sector would have to compete on equal terms. Reservations to
benefit the deprived castes then only would yield results. Would a revamp be
possible?
(This article is authored by Shivaji Sarkar)
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